February 2026 Real Estate Market Update

The February 2026 real estate market is starting to shift, and the direction is becoming clearer.

While headlines point to lower sales, the real story is happening beneath the surface. Inventory is tightening, buyers are still active, and early signs of competition are beginning to build as we move toward the spring market.

GTA Market Overview – Demand Is Building

Across the GTA, 3,868 homes sold in February 2026, down 6.3% compared to last year. At the same time, new listings dropped by a much larger 17.7%.

That gap matters.

Fewer listings combined with steady buyer demand is what creates pressure on prices. Right now, many buyers are waiting for stability, but there is a growing pool of pent-up demand sitting on the sidelines.

Once confidence returns, that demand has the potential to move quickly.

Prices reflect the hesitation:

• Average price: $1,008,968 (down 7.1% year-over-year)
• MLS HPI benchmark: down 7.9% year-over-year

Month-over-month, both prices and activity softened slightly, but the bigger signal is the drop in new listings.

Durham Region – Momentum Starting to Shift

Durham Region showed stronger signs of movement compared to the broader GTA.

• Average price: $850,304 (+3.86% month-over-month)
• Sales: 454 (+10.19% month-over-month)
• Days on market: 26 (down 33.33%)
• Average SP/LP: 99%

Homes are selling faster, and buyers are stepping back into the market when properties are priced correctly.

This is often how a shift begins. Not with headlines, but with subtle changes in speed and competition.

City Breakdown – What Buyers and Sellers Need to Know

Oshawa
Prices remained stable at $712,618, with consistent sales activity. Inventory pulled back slightly, which could create tighter conditions if demand increases.

Whitby
One of the strongest rebounds this month. Sales jumped 32.05% while prices edged up to $928,656. Buyer confidence is returning here faster than most.

Ajax
Prices dipped to $861,850, but sales increased. More listings are entering the market, giving buyers options, but also creating competition between sellers.

Pickering
Prices softened to $906,407, but sales rose 20%. Inventory continues to climb, making pricing strategy critical.

Clarington
The biggest price rebound in Durham. Average price climbed 9.5% to $798,206. Sales held steady, showing balanced conditions overall.

What This Means Right Now

This is not a typical market.

Buyers are cautious, but active. Sellers are entering the market more carefully. And inventory trends are starting to shape what comes next.

Three key takeaways:

1. Inventory is the lever
   If listings stay low, competition will increase quickly.
2. Buyers are waiting, not gone
   There is real demand sitting on the sidelines.
3. Speed is returning to the market
   Homes selling in 26 days on average is a major shift from where we were just months ago.

Looking Ahead to Spring 2026

The spring market will not be driven by hype. It will be driven by confidence.

If buyers feel prices have stabilized and more inventory does not arrive, expect competition to increase. If listings rise sharply, conditions could remain balanced longer.

Either way, the window to make the right move is opening.

Thinking About Buying or Selling?

Understanding the numbers is one thing. Knowing how to position yourself within them is what actually drives results.

The Dan Plowman Team continues to help clients navigate changing market conditions with clear strategy, strong positioning, and proven systems.

If you are planning a move in 2026, now is the time to understand where you stand.

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