The Greater Toronto Area housing market continued to tighten in July 2026 as the number of new listings declined and buyers faced increased competition for available homes. While prices remain below last year’s levels, the changing balance between sales and listings could be an early sign that the market is beginning to stabilize.
Here in Durham Region, July brought the typical summer slowdown in activity, with fewer sales and fewer new listings than June. The average sale price also moved lower month-over-month, but the numbers varied considerably between individual Durham municipalities.
GTA Market Conditions Continued to Tighten
GTA REALTORS® reported 5,995 home sales in July 2026, a slight 0.9% decrease compared with July 2025. However, new listings fell much more significantly, declining 17.8% year-over-year to 14,484.
That difference is important. Even though sales were essentially flat compared with last year, considerably fewer homes were being introduced to the market.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales actually increased from June while new listings declined. According to TRREB, this continued the tightening in market conditions that developed throughout the spring.
The GTA average selling price was $1,003,956, down 4.5% compared with July 2025. The MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark declined 4.6% year-over-year. Month-over-month, however, the benchmark edged higher while the average selling price moved slightly lower.
The broader trend suggests the gap between current prices and last year's levels may be narrowing as inventory conditions tighten.
Durham Region Real Estate Market – July 2026
Durham Region recorded an average sale price of $834,312 in July, down 2.55% from $856,170 in June. Homes took an average of 27 days to sell, compared with 24 days in June, while the average sale-to-list price moved from 99% to 98%.
There were 725 sales, a 14.61% decline from June's 849 transactions. At the same time, new listings fell 16.11%, from 2,049 in June to 1,719 in July.
The decline in both sales and listings is consistent with a summer slowdown, but the fact that new listings declined at a slightly faster rate than sales is worth watching as we move toward the fall market.
Oshawa
Oshawa's average sale price fell 4.52% month-over-month to $693,677, compared with $726,544 in June. Sales remained relatively steady, decreasing 2.21% from 181 to 177 homes sold.
New listings saw a much larger decline, falling 15.12% from 529 in June to 449 in July.
While prices moved lower in July, the relatively small decline in sales compared with the reduction in new inventory could be an important trend to monitor heading into the fall.
Whitby
Whitby's average sale price was $894,257, down 4.50% from $936,392 in June. Sales decreased 16.07%, with 141 homes sold compared with 168 the previous month.
There were 323 new listings, a 7.98% decrease from June's 351.
Whitby therefore experienced a more pronounced decline in sales than in new listings during July, alongside a lower average selling price.
Ajax
Ajax moved in the opposite direction when it came to both prices and sales. The average sale price climbed 4.45% to $907,336, up from $868,651 in June. Sales also increased 15.63%, from 96 to 111 transactions.
At the same time, new listings declined 13.36% to 227, compared with 262 in June.
Of the Durham municipalities we're tracking, Ajax showed one of the clearest examples of tightening conditions in July: more sales, fewer new listings and a higher average sale price.
Pickering
Pickering also recorded a higher average selling price in July, rising 3.65% to $951,065 from $917,592 in June. However, sales declined considerably, falling 37.58% from 157 to 98 transactions.
New listings also dropped substantially, declining 22.46% from 334 to 259.
Pickering had the highest average sale price among the five Durham municipalities tracked here in July, despite significantly lower monthly sales activity.
Clarington
Clarington's average sale price declined 4.32% to $753,919, compared with $787,979 in June. Sales decreased 20%, from 165 transactions to 132.
New listings fell 16.90%, from 355 in June to 295 in July.
Both buyers and sellers pulled back during the month, with sales and new inventory declining at relatively similar rates.
What Do the July Numbers Mean for Durham Region?
July wasn't simply a story of prices going up or down. The more important development is what is happening with inventory relative to demand.
Across Durham Region, sales declined 14.61% month-over-month, but new listings declined even more at 16.11%. At the GTA level, the year-over-year difference was considerably larger, with sales down only 0.9% while new listings were down 17.8%.
That doesn't automatically mean prices are about to rise. Durham's average sale price declined in July, average days on market increased to 27, and homes sold for an average of 98% of their asking price. However, if the number of available listings continues to tighten relative to buyer demand, the negotiating advantage buyers have enjoyed could begin to diminish.
The individual markets also tell very different stories. Ajax and Pickering both recorded higher average sale prices in July, while Oshawa, Whitby and Clarington moved lower. That reinforces why looking only at the GTA or even Durham-wide average can miss what is happening in a specific community.
Looking Ahead to the Fall 2026 Real Estate Market
The next few months will help determine whether July's tightening is simply seasonal or the beginning of a more meaningful shift.
For buyers, there is still negotiating room in many parts of Durham Region, but declining inventory could change the balance if demand strengthens.
For sellers, pricing remains critical. Buyers continue to have choices, and the Durham-wide average of 27 days on market shows that homes are not necessarily selling immediately. Properties that are positioned correctly against current competition will be in a stronger position to attract serious buyers.
The key number to watch heading into the fall isn't just price — it's the relationship between sales and new listings. If inventory continues to contract while buyer activity holds or increases, the Durham Region housing market could look noticeably different as we move through the second half of 2026.
Posted by Dan Plowman on
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