MAY 2024 UPDATE: NAVIGATING THE GTA & DURHAM REGION REAL ESTATE MARKET

Welcome back to our detailed real estate market update for May 2024 in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Durham Region.

This month has brought some interesting shifts, reflecting broader economic sentiments and potential shifts in the mortgage landscape:

GTA Market Insights:

Sales Activity: May 2024 continued to showcase reduced home sales levels, especially in comparison to the brief surge experienced last spring. Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) reported a total of 7,013 sales through the MLS® System this May—a significant 21.7% decline from the 8,960 sales reported in May 2023. Despite the slowdown in sales, new listings rose sharply, up by 21.1% year-over-year to 18,612, giving buyers more options and leverage in price negotiations.

Home Prices: The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite benchmark experienced a decrease of 3.5% year-over-year. The average selling price for the month stood at $1,165,691, marking a 2.5% drop from May 2023’s average of $1,195,409. However, there was a slight month-over-month increase in the average selling price compared to April 2024.

Market Trends: Recent Ipsos polling suggests that many potential buyers are on hold, awaiting clearer signs of declining mortgage rates. As borrowing costs are projected to decrease over the next 18 months, an influx of buyers, including many first-timers, is expected. This could ease some pressures in the tight rental market. However, with demand likely to rise, home prices might face upward pressures as the competition among buyers intensifies.

Durham Region Insights:

Sales and Listings: Durham Region saw 907 homes sold and 2,082 new listings come to market in May 2024. Homes spent an average of 14 days on the market, maintaining a brisk pace similar to last month.

Average Home Prices in Durham Region:

• Durham Region: $954,942
• Pickering: $1,019,367
• Ajax: $1,002,821
• Whitby: $1,038,152
• Oshawa: $813,004
• Clarington: $913,086

Looking Ahead: Both the GTA and Durham Region's real estate markets are at a pivotal point. Lower anticipated borrowing costs and ongoing economic activities are expected to bolster demand. Nonetheless, significant challenges such as housing affordability persist, necessitating innovative solutions and a coordinated governmental effort to address the housing supply deficit and support infrastructure for a growing population.

Governmental Focus: TRREB CEO John DiMichele emphasizes the need for governmental coordination to address the housing shortfall and to support infrastructure development, including the completion of public transit projects like the Eglinton Crosstown LRT, to ensure the region’s long-term economic health and livability.

Looking Ahead: Market Predictions for the GTA and Durham Region

As we navigate through 2024, the real estate market in both the Greater Toronto Area and Durham Region is poised for some notable changes. Here are our key predictions based on the current data and trends:

• Continued Cautious Buying: Buyers are likely to remain cautious in the short term, holding off on purchases until there is more certainty around mortgage rates. This could keep sales activities moderated for a while longer.

• Increase in Listings: Homeowners expecting an improvement in market conditions may continue to list properties, increasing the inventory. This influx of new listings will provide prospective buyers with a broader selection and more negotiating power.

• Price Adjustments: With an ample supply and cautious buyer sentiment, price adjustments are likely, especially if listings continue to outpace sales. Prices may stabilize or even decrease slightly in some areas until demand catches up.

• Renewed Interest and Competition: As borrowing costs begin to decrease, we anticipate a resurgence in buyer interest, particularly from first-time homeowners. This renewed interest is expected to drive competition and potentially lead to price increases as we move into 2025.

• Affordable Housing Initiatives: The need for affordable housing solutions will remain a focal point. We expect to see continued efforts from governmental bodies to introduce policies and initiatives that encourage the development of diverse and affordable housing options.

• Market Dynamics in Durham Region: The Durham Region might continue to experience a more dynamic market compared to the broader GTA, with relatively shorter listing durations and competitive pricing, especially in areas like Whitby and Ajax which show higher price points.

These predictions are crafted with an eye on current market indicators and economic factors. As always, the real estate landscape can shift with changes in economic policies and broader market conditions, so staying informed and agile will be key for anyone looking to invest, buy, or sell in the coming months. Stay tuned to our updates for the latest insights and analysis, helping you make the most informed decisions in your real estate journey.

STATS PROVIDED FROM TRREB & INDEPENDENT REPORTING COMPANY RE STATS INC. INFORMATION IS DEEMED RELIABLE BUT NOT GUARANTEED. DOES NOT REFLECT ALL MARKET ACTIVITY. DATA MAY VARY BY 2.5%